Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.682869 5.482172 6.365115 7.411183 8.615027 9.955331 11.558934
2025-09-21 3.420949 4.489915 5.797759 7.508029 9.677241 12.327792 15.801997
2025-09-28 2.616735 3.783047 5.337597 7.543534 10.572388 14.561024 20.182570
2025-10-05 2.277340 3.569381 5.418271 8.223715 12.331580 18.075844 26.652105
2025-10-12 1.923672 3.242363 5.253051 8.490514 13.505965 20.894891 32.488664
2025-10-19 1.655896 2.980677 5.119262 8.749723 14.661444 23.778360 38.716103
2025-10-26 1.405338 2.690983 4.880118 8.783375 15.437800 26.138240 44.373617
2025-11-02 1.159044 2.356518 4.503182 8.514954 15.659393 27.610446 48.743158
2025-11-09 0.942028 2.030645 4.082041 8.093404 15.541614 28.477326 52.163970
2025-11-16 0.801007 1.823010 3.839731 7.950643 15.879750 30.127141 57.050182
2025-11-23 0.691913 1.658462 3.651074 7.875310 16.319057 31.980335 62.453436
2025-11-30 0.639655 1.605582 3.675641 8.218388 17.587329 35.452241 71.107358
2025-12-07 0.565445 1.491734 3.561258 8.273645 18.320914 38.048268 78.488326
2025-12-14 0.499003 1.383260 3.442014 8.303410 19.011259 40.643871 86.156618
2025-12-21 0.440624 1.282406 3.322989 8.315124 19.663183 43.228468 94.060195
2025-12-28 0.432945 1.311153 3.511009 9.049072 21.961668 49.373471 109.692887
2026-01-04 0.399848 1.264534 3.508994 9.336849 23.301183 53.654349 121.884091
2026-01-11 0.369835 1.220179 3.505153 9.618572 24.657735 58.097172 134.812711
2026-01-18 0.332015 1.144739 3.408397 9.654833 25.442227 61.369672 145.525397
2026-01-25 0.285812 1.033062 3.195515 9.361578 25.397192 62.791673 152.315491
2026-02-01 0.240242 0.912084 2.934910 8.901121 24.878174 63.077399 156.582024
2026-02-08 0.210960 0.837780 2.794446 8.745150 25.107625 65.115889 165.018159
2026-02-15 0.187548 0.777959 2.686218 8.662843 25.516808 67.615923 174.743800